World Crisis

What the country needs reforms, has become the conventional wisdom, known even kindergarten children. Their need for a lot of years, the politicians say. Usually they do it before the election, as well forgotten after the elections. Change the government, change the coalition. In all, the program documents recorded points of intent to carry out reforms, and who has not got off the ground.

And it's not unexpected difficulties, the case in the absence of political will. The desire to maintain popularity, ratings, warm places is much stronger than the interests of the country. Involuntarily the question arises whether we have a policy if there is the political elite, to which the country's interests are dominant? The realities of what is happening give a very bleak answer. We do not have politicians who have politicians, ersatz policy for which the personal interests of the state is more important. We have no political elite, there is a group of random people, impostors, assumed the name.

The current government has declared the policy of reform, Resolves to hold them. The good news is that these conversations are not before the election, and after them. It will be decided whether to move from words to action, and how big are the chances of their successful implementation depends on many factors. First of all, must be defined and set out the aims and objectives of the reforms. Why, indeed, we aim to come and choose what strategy to achieve these goals. To date, the government has not formulated any goals or strategies of reform. Achieving the economic level of the developed countries of Europe, it is neither the first nor the second. This is the slogan of the policy, the slogan of a beautiful and attractive, but no more. He does not answer to any important question of reform.

The country is like a living organism, where the different organs and their functions are inextricably linked with each other. In view of this, the problem of reforming the country, it is a complex task, covering a large variety of industries and pleased functions. It's the economy, public administration and local self-administrative-territorial division, health care, education and social security. This list is not exhaustive, it can be extended. But it is impossible in one article to cover all of these industries. In this paper, we restrict ourselves to the question of economic reform, affecting the rest of the industry only in those cases where the examination is not possible without it.

The economic crisis has revealed the weaknesses of the economy of Ukraine, all the backwardness of its structure. In fact, we have an economy of the past half century. It is based on energy-intensive and polluting industries, such as metallurgy and chemistry. Modern high-tech and high-tech industries are either absent or, as in aerospace, aviation, power engineering eke out a very miserable existence. Our main industries are the sectors from which the world's leading economies seek to get rid of, transporting them away from their territories. To call a spade a spade, in the categories of the 21st century, we have an economy of the colonial type. Such findings looks sad, but it's a reality that must be taken into account. They do not mean that we are doomed to colonial existence in the future. We have a chance, if we use them. This gives us a chance to the global economic crisis.

Economic reform must be based not only on the understanding of the state of our own economy, but also on understanding of global trends and processes of economic development. It will be a big mistake to start with the thesis that the economic crisis is over or almost over. In fact, only ended its first phase. The process dynamics in the world economy shows that the second phase of the crisis with a very high degree of probability will begin at the end of this year. Available before the next wave of the crisis relatively favorable time to be used for the accumulation of monetary reserves and to stimulate the development and expansion of the internal market. After all, the next phase of the crisis will be to our economy is much more painful. First of all, because the center and source of the crisis is Europe, where there are our major trading partners. Instead of real measures to address the crisis, measures to modernize the economy, European policymakers were engaged only in imitation of the struggle, pumping up the economy with empty money, trying to keep the economy in the pre-crisis state. Now, you pay a price. If the U.S. economy has undergone considerable changes, especially in the banking and financial sector, construction, automotive, in Europe basically all left in the pre-crisis state.

improves, then there is something you

not noticed.

(Murphy's Law).


It seems that over the years we have become wiser. We want to see the world around us, getting better, more comfortable, more secure. Lulls us increase production and income. It seems that this will continue, if not forever, then at least for the foreseeable future. We tried to ignore the unpleasant signals, but they are there's no fade. They accumulate, reaching a critical level. And then comes the payoff for our complacency, our complacency, our greed. It starts with the economic crisis. It is quite unexpected and inappropriate.

Unfulfilled expectations.

At the heart of all the expectations laid assessment of what is happening, as the financial crisis. It seemed that the cost to clean up the financial sector, to limit speculation, improve the banking system, to remove the "bubbles" in the mortgage and the world will return to economic growth and prosperity. The economy will regain credit support to the financial sector, increase employment, and with it the demand, and this in turn will increase production. Huge financial resources have been thrown by national governments and international financial institutions for the implementation of the plan of salvation of the world economy. The results do not correspond to the volume of resources used. The expected transition of the economy to sustainable growth did not happen, even signs such we do not observe. A significant portion of these funds can already enroll in the category hopelessly lost. And the reason for this lies not in malice, but a lack of understanding of the processes taking place in the global economy. Their views on the causes of the global economic crisis, I have already stated above ("Can I use the chance. Proactive strategy of development"). Because of this limit their brief statement. The current crisis is the first structural crisis of the global economy. The world economy is faced with a shortage of resources for growth. In this case, the resources are not used efficiently. Many manufacturing and industry have been established long before the formation of the global market. They were created as local production of individual national economies. After the formation of the global market revealed that many of them are old, technologically backward, some industries posted unsuccessfully, away from raw materials and production resources. For the global market, they are superfluous, unnecessary, selects resources in modern efficient production. Their unsustainable consumption they create scarcity of material resources, which leads to uncontrolled growth of prices for raw materials. It is no accident that the economic crisis began to emerge when the price of oil reached $ 140-150. Energy shortages served as the trigger for the unfolding crisis.




What we are witnessing now is only the beginning. The crisis will end only when accomplished their task by changing the structure of the global economy. This change implies not only the death of extra "tails", inherited the global economy at the confluence of national, but the transition of some of them to a new technology base. Shortage of raw materials makes it impossible for them to further extensive development with the available level of technology. First of all it concerns the energy and related sectors. The hydrocarbon energy is almost exhausted its growth opportunities and its era of dominance is coming to an end. If we start from this understanding of the crisis, it is quite natural that he first touched the energy-intensive industries such as chemistry, metallurgy and automobile.