Decline in economic indices - the result of disastrous economic policies
After a major drop in U.S. stock indices last week in the media, a host of articles. The main cause of the incident the authors believe investors' fears that the improvement in the labor market will lead to a tightening of monetary policy and cuts in programs QE. I beg to differ with such explanations.
We should not delude ourselves unnecessarily reduce the initial claims for unemployment benefits to 320,000. In assessing this indicator should take into account seasonal factors. The summer period is characterized by the appearance of many temporary jobs in the service sector, which are associated with the holiday season. In the autumn of these jobs will be cut. In addition, many Americans postpone summer for fall job search. I think that in September, the number of applications for unemployment benefits will increase significantly.
For some reason, were not seen by the authors of articles data on net purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors (Net Long-term TIC Flows). These data were in negative territory. In this case, the speaker is very important. Data on this indicator are in the negative sector fourth consecutive month. If the March deficit was -13.5 bn in April -21.8, -27.2 in May and in June reached -66.9. There is enough stable dynamics of increase in the negative balance.
What the country needs reforms, has become the conventional wisdom, known even kindergarten children. Their need for a lot of years, the politicians say. Usually they do it before the election, as well forgotten after the elections. Change the government, change the coalition. In all, the program documents recorded points of intent to carry out reforms, and who has not got off the ground.
And it's not unexpected difficulties, the case in the absence of political will. The desire to maintain popularity, ratings, warm places is much stronger than the interests of the country. Involuntarily the question arises whether we have a policy if there is the political elite, to which the country's interests are dominant? The realities of what is happening give a very bleak answer. We do not have politicians who have politicians, ersatz policy for which the personal interests of the state is more important. We have no political elite, there is a group of random people, impostors, assumed the name.
The current government has declared the policy of reform, Resolves to hold them. The good news is that these conversations are not before the election, and after them. It will be decided whether to move from words to action, and how big are the chances of their successful implementation depends on many factors. First of all, must be defined and set out the aims and objectives of the reforms. Why, indeed, we aim to come and choose what strategy to achieve these goals. To date, the government has not formulated any goals or strategies of reform. Achieving the economic level of the developed countries of Europe, it is neither the first nor the second. This is the slogan of the policy, the slogan of a beautiful and attractive, but no more. He does not answer to any important question of reform.
The country is like a living organism, where the different organs and their functions are inextricably linked with each other. In view of this, the problem of reforming the country, it is a complex task, covering a large variety of industries and pleased functions. It's the economy, public administration and local self-administrative-territorial division, health care, education and social security. This list is not exhaustive, it can be extended. But it is impossible in one article to cover all of these industries. In this paper, we restrict ourselves to the question of economic reform, affecting the rest of the industry only in those cases where the examination is not possible without it.
The economic crisis has revealed the weaknesses of the economy of Ukraine, all the backwardness of its structure. In fact, we have an economy of the past half century. It is based on energy-intensive and polluting industries, such as metallurgy and chemistry. Modern high-tech and high-tech industries are either absent or, as in aerospace, aviation, power engineering eke out a very miserable existence. Our main industries are the sectors from which the world's leading economies seek to get rid of, transporting them away from their territories. To call a spade a spade, in the categories of the 21st century, we have an economy of the colonial type. Such findings looks sad, but it's a reality that must be taken into account. They do not mean that we are doomed to colonial existence in the future. We have a chance, if we use them. This gives us a chance to the global economic crisis.
Economic reform must be based not only on the understanding of the state of our own economy, but also on understanding of global trends and processes of economic development. It will be a big mistake to start with the thesis that the economic crisis is over or almost over. In fact, only ended its first phase. The process dynamics in the world economy shows that the second phase of the crisis with a very high degree of probability will begin at the end of this year. Available before the next wave of the crisis relatively favorable time to be used for the accumulation of monetary reserves and to stimulate the development and expansion of the internal market. After all, the next phase of the crisis will be to our economy is much more painful. First of all, because the center and source of the crisis is Europe, where there are our major trading partners. Instead of real measures to address the crisis, measures to modernize the economy, European policymakers were engaged only in imitation of the struggle, pumping up the economy with empty money, trying to keep the economy in the pre-crisis state. Now, you pay a price. If the U.S. economy has undergone considerable changes, especially in the banking and financial sector, construction, automotive, in Europe basically all left in the pre-crisis state.
Обновлено (24.04.2013 15:37)
The global economic crisis, the causes and consequences. Quo vadis?
If you think that the situation
Обновлено (22.04.2013 00:05)