The global economic crisis, the causes and consequences. Quo vadis?
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It seems that over the years we have become wiser. We want to see the world around us, getting better, more comfortable, more secure. Lulls us increase production and income. It seems that this will continue, if not forever, then at least for the foreseeable future. We tried to ignore the unpleasant signals, but they are there's no fade. They accumulate, reaching a critical level. And then comes the payoff for our complacency, our complacency, our greed. It starts with the economic crisis. It is quite unexpected and inappropriate.
At the heart of all the expectations laid assessment of what is happening, as the financial crisis. It seemed that the cost to clean up the financial sector, to limit speculation, improve the banking system, to remove the "bubbles" in the mortgage and the world will return to economic growth and prosperity. The economy will regain credit support to the financial sector, increase employment, and with it the demand, and this in turn will increase production. Huge financial resources have been thrown by national governments and international financial institutions for the implementation of the plan of salvation of the world economy. The results do not correspond to the volume of resources used. The expected transition of the economy to sustainable growth did not happen, even signs such we do not observe. A significant portion of these funds can already enroll in the category hopelessly lost. And the reason for this lies not in malice, but a lack of understanding of the processes taking place in the global economy. Their views on the causes of the global economic crisis, I have already stated above ("Can I use the chance. Proactive strategy of development"). Because of this limit their brief statement. The current crisis is the first structural crisis of the global economy. The world economy is faced with a shortage of resources for growth. In this case, the resources are not used efficiently. Many manufacturing and industry have been established long before the formation of the global market. They were created as local production of individual national economies. After the formation of the global market revealed that many of them are old, technologically backward, some industries posted unsuccessfully, away from raw materials and production resources. For the global market, they are superfluous, unnecessary, selects resources in modern efficient production. Their unsustainable consumption they create scarcity of material resources, which leads to uncontrolled growth of prices for raw materials. It is no accident that the economic crisis began to emerge when the price of oil reached $ 140-150. Energy shortages served as the trigger for the unfolding crisis.
What we are witnessing now is only the beginning. The crisis will end only when accomplished their task by changing the structure of the global economy. This change implies not only the death of extra "tails", inherited the global economy at the confluence of national, but the transition of some of them to a new technology base. Shortage of raw materials makes it impossible for them to further extensive development with the available level of technology. First of all it concerns the energy and related sectors. The hydrocarbon energy is almost exhausted its growth opportunities and its era of dominance is coming to an end. If we start from this understanding of the crisis, it is quite natural that he first touched the energy-intensive industries such as chemistry, metallurgy and automobile.
To formulate integrated, the global economic crisis, it is a process in which the individual national economies of the established historical reasons and circumstances, locally spontaneously, sometimes with low technical level, formed a single global system of industrial production with a highly specialized and technical level. This is a process in which the industrial economy uses, in fact, the last significant reserve increase its efficiency.
The need to coordinate actions to overcome the crisis processes seemed necessary and inevitable. An attempt to assign these functions to the G20 can hardly be called a success. And the problem in the first place, is not in the organizational structure, and in the level of political decision-makers. Alas, the period of bright politicians able to rise above the immediate problems, able to think big, not afraid to look into the future, has passed. Among the world's first-tier politicians can not see anyone who could could claim the level of politicians such as Zbigniew Brzezinski. The latest European politician able to think on a large scale and to generate new ideas, was John Major, but he is now gone by the wayside. And now the current policy on this, it seems, just can not. They are confused about the current problems and are simply afraid to look to the future, for them it is not enough political will. Nevertheless it to the establishment of an effective coordinating body remains open. It is necessary, no one doubts.
We should not mislead the upcoming revival of economic activity. It is not sustainable, it's faster, "dead cat bounce". Such recovery may not last long and will be accompanied by a rise in commodity prices. Once again, the price of oil will rise, exceeding the level of $ 100 per barrel. Rise again metals prices. But weakened by the first wave of crisis, the economy will not sustain the increase in oil prices above $ 110-120. Will begin a new wave of the crisis, and it will continue until the completion of structural changes in the global economy.
Problems and prospects.
As a result of the disappearance and displacement of the economy technologically backward industries there will be major changes in the international division of labor and world trade. Of course, in principle, possible to grow bananas in the polar regions, but can they compete with the bananas grown in the tropics? The question is rhetorical. But a similar way to evaluate the effectiveness in other areas of production of other commodity groups. That will result in preferential concentration of high-tech industries in the region, to ensure optimum cost of raw materials and energy component, the cost of labor and the cost of delivery of products to the consumer. There will be a natural specialization producing regions. This will result in a significant increase in the volume of trade flows in world trade. Increase the degree of interdependence of national economies and regions. Possible disruptions in transportation of goods will pose a serious threat to the global economy. In view of ensuring an uninterrupted and safe way to deliver the goods will be the single most important industry. Their strategic importance of change many geo-strategic importance of the evaluation of regions and corridors. The natural specialization of regions and the increase of trade flows will lead to a significant increase in the movement of capital. The global economy is to ensure freedom of movement. National governments their disparate actions will not solve this problem. To address this problem likely will require the combined efforts of national governments and associations of states, international instruments require both legal and organizational nature. These functions, with a corresponding expansion of powers, it is able to implement already existing WTO.
The existing monetary system will not be able to meet the increased flow of goods and capital. Neither, though economically strong national currency is not capable of. Limited capacity of national currencies with their own problems of national economies, affects national egoism in solving immediate problems. At the base of the new monetary system could become a pool of countries with a strong modern economy, acting as the stability and reliability of the Exchange. Available now a pool of international bank providing foreign exchange for the needs of international trade and combined into an international system of exchange rates Forex has great opportunities to influence the exchange rate. Their own private interests of its members do not always coincide, and will not match the needs of the global economy. In view of this, the regulation of the new monetary system to decide the appropriate International Monetary Central Bank. He has to take fundamental decisions about the volume of money supply, currency issuance, the discount rate, the rules of exchange.
In addition to the above questions should be noted that the free movement of goods and capital over time raise the issue of free movement of workers. This issue is very sensitive and painful for most national governments. But the blocking of this issue can create dangerous divisions and conflicts between the regions of the global world, creating a threat of extremism and terrorism. There is not even the risk of inter-state and inter-regional conflicts, which may be involved whole groups of nation states.
The crisis will make a significant qualitative change in the nature of monopolies. Available transnational monopolies operate in different states, but still have to bind to the parent site, which usually located their headquarters. For its advancement in the world, they still need the support and assistance of their national governments. Persistent trend of development of modern monopoly is their desire to expand their sphere of influence. New are the trends in the formation of chains covering all cycles from production to the final consumer. Increasing competition for increasingly scarce resources in a global economy will lead to the formation of monopolistic structures that control the entire chain from raw materials and resources to the end user. The creation of such monopolistic structures will lead to an increase in the level of monopoly in the global economy. This poses a serious threat to the principles of free competition. Monopolies are so powerful that they will no longer need a national support. I would call them extraterritorial monopolies. They will not have a territorial connection, their territory, a territory of the entire global market. They will be interested in equal rules of the game. But wherever possible, they will tend to be the most "equal of equals." If national governments are economically strong nations will still be able to counter them, the government of the weaker developing countries are unlikely to confront their own pressures and dictates. Without an international system of control and regulation that limits these attempts extraterritorial monopoly abuse its monopoly position, without mechanisms to counter their attempts to monopolize its influence, the world may turn into some new neo-colonial conflicts and wars of the global world. Half measures are of little help here. The mechanisms established to include the most stringent and effective measures, including forced separation extraterritorial monopolies. National states already have the necessary experience and practice in this area. They can be summarized and articulated in international legal instruments. Otherwise, the contradictions and conflicts between the monopolies and between nation-states in the global world torn apart. Especially great danger may be monopolistic tendencies of producers of intellectual goods. After all, these products will be in the future to determine the nature of the global intellectual production, but of the entire world.
Increased in the global economy interdependence, the need for coordination and harmonization of different states will make changes to the understanding of national sovereignty. The solution of the problems that national governments can not solve each independently may be delegated to international organizations. If they are to work effectively, taking into account the interests of all stakeholders, the international mechanisms will be profitable by the nation-states, although it's kind of limit their sovereignty.
Strengthening coordination and regulation do not fit into a liberal model. These are the methods of its antipode, the communist ideology. When viewed from the point of view of the economy, the contradiction between the liberal and communist ideas of world order is different understanding of the model of management and regulation of industrial production. This distinction is adequately reflected in the different sets of political principles and slogans. The question of ownership is a matter of legal reinforcement of real economic content in this category. Naturally, the centralization of management requires the centralization of ownership and free competition is its decentralization. The emerging global economy dialectical unity of opposites, a combination of free competition with the principles of centralized control of the economy is a sign that in the depths of the global industrial production will be a process of formation of a new, post-industrial production.
Features typical of the future global economy, appear now. The changes relate to not second-rate issues. There is a transformation, a change of fundamental economic categories. The last thing I would like to get stuck in, at times, eclectic debate between proponents and supporters of the labor value theory of marginal utility. We will assume that the change of the productive forces, their improvement, the emergence of a qualitatively new businesses and industries can change the nature of industrial relations. In these new operating conditions there is a new content familiar economic terms and categories. The new productive forces create new relations of production appropriate to them. One of these new productive forces in the post-industrial world are becoming global knowledge and intelligence. If they had previously concluded in its carrier, labor, and create new value indirectly through the creation of new machinery and technology to produce the goods, now the knowledge and intelligence are the direct productive force, creating the product. Examples of this are computer programs. This product knowledge and intelligence in some formalized form has all the qualities and features that are typical of the goods and can be used by those who acquired it for the production of other goods. We have become accustomed to the term-intellectual product. Today, knowledge and intelligence are a new kind of product. The number of its sub-species is the fastest growing. This program, information systems, control systems, modeling and forecasting, transmission and processing of information, robotic systems, and many others. This number is growing rapidly. The growth rate of smart products so exceeds the rate of growth of material goods, that in 20-30 years the commodity market intelligence products may be one of the dominant markets. Already, knowledge and intelligence are able to act as a capital. A number of manufacturers of intelligent products, such as Microsoft or Google, is already among the world's largest companies. It is well known that the value of their tangible assets for orders below the market valuation of their capitalization. Fixed capital of such companies is intellectual capital. The number of these companies will continue to grow as the mass and types of intellectual products. The system of industrial production, in fact, exhausted all of the essential provisions of the development. The process of globalization, this is her last reserves. In the longer term, the industrial production system is transformed into a system of intellectual production.
The world economy is in a state of transition. There is a transition from industrial production to a system of intellectual production. This process is still at an early stage, because not so noticeable. But he is already making some changes, forcing many to rethink the usual concepts and categories. Such changes in the production system will inevitably require the development of new approaches, concepts and strategies that are appropriate changes in the productive forces and the changed conditions of production.
In our past, we look for the roots of the present. Analyzing the present, we are trying to find out what the future will bring. It is necessary not to forget the historical experience of the past. The theory of a multi-polar, multi-polar world is widely used as a kind of model for the future of the world. Sometimes it looks like a nostalgia for the lost power and greatness, sometimes to dream of such in the future world. It is argued that the emergence of such a world order is inevitable. But no one has clearly not explained how these poles will co-exist, as will avoid conflicts. Talk about some rules of coexistence, all of which will be strictly observed, it smacks Manilovism. Any of the options for a multi-polar world will not change the main thing. It is a model of disengagement, rivalry, mutual deterrence, confrontation and conflict. Historical experience shows that, in case of conflicts and confrontations, rules, at best, in effect until such time as one of the parties does not feel the threat of loss or damage. After that, the rules for this party cease to exist as a deterrent. In addition, be aware that the world is not in a static state, it constantly changes dynamically. In this case, power poles, the balance of power between them is constantly changing. This will inevitably lead to another redistribution of spheres of influence and control. That is, the multipolar system is extremely fragile and unstable. Whether such a system is able to solve the existing problem of today, not to mention the problems of the future? Can it, for example, to solve the conflict between the rich North and the poor South? After all, its underlying mechanisms are reduced to a confrontation and rivalry. In my view, such a system can only exacerbate these problems, at best preserve. In this case, the level of conflict will only rise, threatening to move into open confrontation. Given the experience of mankind to destroy their own kind and the level of scientific and technological advances, which gave humanity the disposal of weapons of mass destruction, a world of conflict may call into question the existence of humanity as such, it is the road to mutual self-destruction of mankind.
How does the multipolar world is able to solve the problems of the current global economic crisis? The objective tendencies of economic development require cooperation and integration, rather than disengagement and confrontation. Multipolar world will inevitably give rise to the polar economy. They should strive to pole isolation and self-sufficiency, particularly in strategic sectors. If they will essentially depend on the economies of other poles, it will be vulnerable to outside influences. And in a world of competition and conflict, it is unacceptable. Each of the poles will be forced to devote enormous resources to the creation and maintenance of its security component providing its security and supporting its expansion. In a multi-polar world is imminent new arms race, and it is unlikely to be limited to the ground, probably will be created space-based systems. In the best case we obtain a known balance of terror. But even come to it will be extremely difficult, given the large number of contracting parties. Most of the world, did not make it into one of the poles, the poles will be the arena for the struggle for resources, influence, for control of strategic areas and communications.
Reality shows that the movement towards a multipolar world is opposite the needs of the global economy. Can we then say about the correctness of the theory. The theory of a multi-polar world as no more than a verbal rhetoric. Already, the degree of interdependence and integration of the world economy is so great that the question of the formation of poles looks very problematic. A further course of the crisis may make this goal unrealistic.
To illustrate this, one can cite many examples. Here is one of them.
In the event of a pole - China, the United States to eliminate their vulnerability will recover metals, transferred to the territory of China. But then what to do with its steel industry to China, because it was created as an export-oriented, and focused primarily on the U.S. market. Even potential candidates for "poles" gladly listen to the arguments of his future greatness, but did not show any activity, and in no hurry to take responsibility for the events taking place in the world. It was too hard, "Monomakh".
In the history of the river can not be entered twice. There was already a multipolar world was bipolar world. A multipolar world brings us the conflicts that developed into two bloody world war. To say that this was not the fault of multipolarity, and failure to comply with the rules, it looks to say the least, naive. And who can guarantee that in the future multipolar world, the rules are followed? Yes, there are no such guarantees, and can not be. We have for many years lived in a bipolar world. He was vysokokonfliktnym, has led to the mass of local wars that killed millions of people. The fruits of this confrontation was terrorism in its current form. This bipolarity has put the world on the brink of mutual destruction, but still allowed to stop in time to avoid disaster. He was much more stable and predictable than multipolar.
Recent decades have seen what has been called a unipolar world. In fact, we are witnessing is not the triumph of a unipolar world, and the withering away of the last pole. None, even the most powerful nation, economically, politically and morally unable to bear the burden of a single pole, responsible for everything that happens in the world without disastrous consequences for the State itself. Taking on excessive responsibilities, it undermines its own power, its own economy. Changes in U.S. foreign policy made ??by Barack Obama, in fact, confirm this fact. Created stop, being equal to retreat. America is not in a position to bear the burden of leadership on their own, she is looking for allies. Until she finds them only in words. To assume their share of responsibility, to spend their resources on it, nor Europe, nor Russia, nor China, not in a hurry.
Considering the concept of a multipolar world, it is necessary to take into account that the categories of economic and political power have a different semantic content in different historical periods. It is a mistake to transfer them to the current understanding of the world of the future. Now the economic power is determined primarily by industrial potential. Analysis of trends shows that, in the future, the economic, and therefore political power will depend primarily on the economy seats on the market of intellectual goods, the intellectual level of the technologies, the ability to quickly implement and use the most advanced intelligent products.
The opposite of a multipolar world is not a unipolar world. It is the opposite of a world without poles bezpolyusny global world. It is a way of forming global peace based on the model of the global economy. Benefits and challenges for a global economic world has already been outlined above. In view of this it makes no sense to repeat, once again setting out the provisions. This scenario has many difficulties and problems, but there is the possibility of solving the existing problems. It involves the creation of international mechanisms of coordination of interests. In favor of this scenario is supported by available economic trends, deepening and widening the integration processes. I do not think that the global world is a world of universal happiness and harmony. But it is a world in which mutual dependence replaces mutual deterrence. It is a world in which conflicts are not profitable as the conflicting parties, and those who are not involved in the conflict. The tight integration of the economies in the global form does not eliminate the possibility of the existence of differences, but they can be resolved without going into the stage of military confrontation .. Experience the integration of Europe, the cradle of the two world wars shows that this is the real methods for global peace.
Obviously, the real development will not occur on any "pure" scenario. Will be attempting to build a multi-polar world, will attempt to maintain a unipolar world, will fight their way to the objective of the formation of the global world. It is difficult to say in what proportions will combine these different trends. But the end result is we come to one of the previously mentioned options. Or will form a global peace based on the processes of integration and coordination of interests, or get ostrokonfliktny and dangerous multi-polar world, which is a dead end sooner or later become apparent. In any case, there will inevitably need to choose between peace and conflict disengagement, and the world of integration and coordination of efforts. After all, these two worlds are incompatible.
I do not think that in the 21st century, we should expect the "end of history" as the universal triumph of liberal ideology. It is clear that the communist ideology, in its current form, will not be able to compete with it. But this vacant niche already occupied nationalism. It manifests itself in various forms, is adjacent to the anti-globalism, and uses the religious factor. In such a unity and combined, it can seriously resist liberalism, especially in matters of globalization. Any ideology, there is a kind of reflection of reality in the minds of the people of the world. Liberalism is the ideology of industrial production, it provides the necessary conditions for it. It is an ideology of freedom of action of the individual in terms of industrial production, it is the ideology of a strong personality, able to compete and to ensure their place in the sun. It is an ideology of norms and procedures. The victory of liberalism over the communist ideology does not mean his victory in perpetuity. Then the need to recognize the eternal system of industrial production, and the "end of history" will be identical to the end of development. Philosophical debates are not the subject of this article, because this will limit brief remarks. The liberal ideology is not an abstract ideology. This is the ideology of a particular material world, the world of industrial production. This world is finite, it has a beginning and will have an end. He can not turn into a timeless absolute, where no laws of dialectics, because of its limbs and materiality. Stopping the development of such a world is its disappearance, or death. With the maturation of intellectually production, liberalism will lose their positions, and his place will be held ideology that adequately reflects the essence of this production. Medieval philosophers with such success could not speak in the XVI century, the end of history because of the victory of the feudal ideology of the feudal system of production in perpetuity. I think that the current "end of history" will meet the same fate. After all, we can already see the first shoots of a new type of production, which will replace the industrial production - intellectual production. It will develop its own ideology. What will it be, one can only speculate. If the liberal ideology is the ideology of freedom of action, the ideology of intellectual production is the ideology of freedom of thought and intellectual creativity. Perhaps, as more intellectual ideology, it will include the concept of fairness which places in the liberal ideology was not found. The principle of justice existed since biblical times before, and will exist as long as there is humanity. And this is a significant weakness of liberalism, which has successfully used her rival communist ideology. It is impossible to predict what shape will transition to the intellectual production. One can only hope that wise by experience of the past, mankind will be able to pass it over without conflict and with less turbulence than it did during the previous shift production system. The dynamics of processes in the economy shows that the transition to the intellectual production will occur later this century. The global economic crisis will drive this transition. This process has been going on now. Pay attention to what is expended efforts to protect intellectual property rights. And it does not matter whether it is done unconsciously, or aware of the coming changes. In any case, laid the legal foundation of the coming world order. Of course, material production will not go away, if not disappeared agriculture in the transition from feudal to industrial production, but its role will change, swap values ??of the scale of economic power, the system will change the geopolitical assessments. It is possible that in the list of leading countries will not be many countries now occupying the leading position.
In terms of intellectual production sphere of education will be the fundamental basic industry and science will become the leading productive force. After all, you can not produce high-quality intellectual products without high-level education and training. In fact, the level of education, its quality will be largely determines the level of economic power. Anyone who does not understand that now runs the risk in the future become a backward, depressed region. This plant can be built quickly, within a few years, and for the formation of scientific schools take decades.
The scope of economic development, this is a very important part of the existing world order. But this is only one part of it. Global world will put a lot of challenges facing humanity philosophical, moral and religious plan. It will unite into a whole different races and peoples to their history, their culture, their philosophy of perceiving the world. Most of these problems has long been known, but will require a new thinking. The process of establishing global peace will require overcoming many obstacles. Some of them are visible now, part we do not know yet, they will manifest in the future. First of all, we need to learn to listen to each other. Only then there will be hope that we will understand each other and to respect other people's opinions and beliefs. We will need to find those principles and values ??that unite us, which we all share. And based on these general principles for us to seek compromises and common solutions to those issues where there is disagreement, where there are contradictions. This is a complex and lengthy process, but it has no alternatives. You can get people to do any, the hardest work. But you can not make people think, you can not get to appreciate the principles and values ??that people do not accept and do not share. The path of discussion and dialogue is the way to achieve success in a global world. And change the very perception of the world. What was once perceived as an event in a distant geographic location, will be an event that took place even in the future, but a room of your home.
We proudly call ourselves Homo sapiens, but the pages of history, our callous treatment of the natural environment, our sophisticated and cynical destruction of millions of their own kind, casts doubt on the validity of the definition. We seem to overestimate yourself a few. Our relentless pursuit to increase their consumption has brought humanity beyond borders, designated to us by Nature. It is worthwhile to look findings of scientists at Cornell University. They studied the paintings of the Last Supper with Jesus Christ. As it turned out, the closer picture of their time writing to our today, the large portions of food are shown in the pictures. Deliberately or not they show zipped through the centuries our understanding of well-being. I do not think that consumption is the goal of human existence. On the new site development spiral again we need to answer the eternal human questions - why should we, the people exist and what is the purpose of our existence. Liberalism, with its disregard for issues of morality, culture, morality, could not and would not be able to answer those questions. Only the interchange, the interpenetration of different cultures can lead humanity out of the moral and ethical impasse in which it is now, stop the degradation processes to recover the lost value of culture. After all, liberal society generated by the mass culture is the culture of the same attitude as the guinea pig to the sea. This culture does not promote nor moral, nor moral, nor the creative development of the individual. And for a society in which creativity and intelligence are the primary productive force, such a culture is simply unacceptable.
If humanity is to go the way of formation of a multipolar world, unable to transcend prejudices, national, and economic self-interest, religious and historical differences, the global economic crisis last for decades. Over time it will grow into a global political crisis, which is fraught with had not yet seen in the history of confrontations and conflicts, which are not parties to the individual states, and the vast regions of the earth. Perhaps even entire continents. Economic power is a necessary but not sufficient condition for creating poles. Each of the poles needs its ideological basis. On the role of these ideologies claim to the ideology of nationalist and religious nature. And, most real contenders seem radical movements of these ideologies. Other contenders, even in the long term, it is not visible.
No pole ideology, creating poles impossible. The confrontation between the poles will carry not only economic and political but also ideological. We all remember what sacrifices worth to mankind ideological confrontation of the 20th century. The ideological confrontation between the nationalist and religious-nationalist ideologies has an extremely low chance for a peaceful resolution. The desire to build a multi-polar world, it is, in fact, the scenario of destruction of human civilization.
To paraphrase the well-known phrase of Winston Churchill, humanity is like a ship in a storm. Compass damaged, charts obsolete. He then rolls to the left, then on the right side, and there is no certainty that the next roll will not be the last. At any moment the ship may roll and carried to the bottom of all, as members of the crew and passengers. Across the universe, it will be small, unobtrusive incident. After all, dinosaurs lived on earth, lived mammoths and many other species of flora and fauna. Due to various circumstances, they became extinct and disappeared from the face of the earth, it was a dead-end. It is quite possible that the human race is one of those dead-end branches, a faulty design. To avoid this scenario, humanity must actually prove to be a reasonable man.
In his history of humanity has survived not one troubled times. There is no doubt that the current threat is much more significant, but increased and accumulated historical experience. And it gives some hope.
Обновлено (22.04.2013 00:05)