What the country needs reforms, has become the conventional wisdom, known even kindergarten children. Their need for a lot of years, the politicians say. Usually they do it before the election, as well forgotten after the elections. Change the government, change the coalition. In all, the program documents recorded points of intent to carry out reforms, and who has not got off the ground.
And it's not unexpected difficulties, the case in the absence of political will. The desire to maintain popularity, ratings, warm places is much stronger than the interests of the country. Involuntarily the question arises whether we have a policy if there is the political elite, to which the country's interests are dominant? The realities of what is happening give a very bleak answer. We do not have politicians who have politicians, ersatz policy for which the personal interests of the state is more important. We have no political elite, there is a group of random people, impostors, assumed the name.
The current government has declared the policy of reform, Resolves to hold them. The good news is that these conversations are not before the election, and after them. It will be decided whether to move from words to action, and how big are the chances of their successful implementation depends on many factors. First of all, must be defined and set out the aims and objectives of the reforms. Why, indeed, we aim to come and choose what strategy to achieve these goals. To date, the government has not formulated any goals or strategies of reform. Achieving the economic level of the developed countries of Europe, it is neither the first nor the second. This is the slogan of the policy, the slogan of a beautiful and attractive, but no more. He does not answer to any important question of reform.
The country is like a living organism, where the different organs and their functions are inextricably linked with each other. In view of this, the problem of reforming the country, it is a complex task, covering a large variety of industries and pleased functions. It's the economy, public administration and local self-administrative-territorial division, health care, education and social security. This list is not exhaustive, it can be extended. But it is impossible in one article to cover all of these industries. In this paper, we restrict ourselves to the question of economic reform, affecting the rest of the industry only in those cases where the examination is not possible without it.
The economic crisis has revealed the weaknesses of the economy of Ukraine, all the backwardness of its structure. In fact, we have an economy of the past half century. It is based on energy-intensive and polluting industries, such as metallurgy and chemistry. Modern high-tech and high-tech industries are either absent or, as in aerospace, aviation, power engineering eke out a very miserable existence. Our main industries are the sectors from which the world's leading economies seek to get rid of, transporting them away from their territories. To call a spade a spade, in the categories of the 21st century, we have an economy of the colonial type. Such findings looks sad, but it's a reality that must be taken into account. They do not mean that we are doomed to colonial existence in the future. We have a chance, if we use them. This gives us a chance to the global economic crisis.
Economic reform must be based not only on the understanding of the state of our own economy, but also on understanding of global trends and processes of economic development. It will be a big mistake to start with the thesis that the economic crisis is over or almost over. In fact, only ended its first phase. The process dynamics in the world economy shows that the second phase of the crisis with a very high degree of probability will begin at the end of this year. Available before the next wave of the crisis relatively favorable time to be used for the accumulation of monetary reserves and to stimulate the development and expansion of the internal market. After all, the next phase of the crisis will be to our economy is much more painful. First of all, because the center and source of the crisis is Europe, where there are our major trading partners. Instead of real measures to address the crisis, measures to modernize the economy, European policymakers were engaged only in imitation of the struggle, pumping up the economy with empty money, trying to keep the economy in the pre-crisis state. Now, you pay a price. If the U.S. economy has undergone considerable changes, especially in the banking and financial sector, construction, automotive, in Europe basically all left in the pre-crisis state.
The current economic crisis, this is the first structural crisis of the world economy. At the same time, it is a crisis of transition from the current system of industrial production to the new system of production - post-industrial system of intellectual production. Is itself the magnitude of these processes contributes to their long-term nature. Many of the existing industries simply disappear. In return, they will have new industries. This process will be very painful as affect all aspects of human existence. It will change the understanding of wealth and power, geopolitical assessments and priorities. He's a lot will change our understanding of the world, will bring his new philosophical understanding.
The success or failure of economic reforms in Ukraine, first of all, the correct choice is determined by the general conceptual principles underlying all of its components, all of the individual reforms in various sectors of the economy. These design principles are defined as goals and objectives of the reform, as well as a strategy for achieving the goals.
The list of conceptual principles of reform is not so great as it might seem at first glance. The Soviet Union used a concept that was formulated as to catch up with and overtake the developed countries. This concept is in principle has been implemented. In the 60-70 years of the last century, the Soviet Union reached the target point, only the developed countries was not there. During the race, they are far ahead. On the second spurt in the Soviet Union had neither the capacity nor the resources. "Asian Tigers" used the concept of industries locomotives. She brought them major successes, but these gains were temporary. Currently, they have not less, and in some ways and more difficult than the countries that are catching up. China's economy is in a different position. Its rapid growth is due to the processes of globalization. China has turned into a giant producer of colonial goods. United States moved into its territory its metallurgy and chemistry part. Europe posted their assembly of electronics and home appliances. If China does not want the future to consolidate its status as a producer of colonial goods, he will have to do a major reform of its economy. Neither the first nor the second conception of Ukraine does not fit, they are not able to lead the country in a leading position. Times have changed, the world economy has changed. Not always true economic theories and concepts. Everything flows, everything changes. In the distant past colonial goods are coffee, cocoa, spices and exotic foods. Later colonial goods were oil, coal, iron ore and other commodities. In the 21 th century colonial goods are products of metallurgy, chemistry, assembly plants and other household appliances mass, mass production of garments and other mass but technologically simple and harmful production.
Ukraine's chances to take its rightful place in the post-crisis system of international division of labor is a concept based on the principle of advancing. The concept of pre-emptive development is to focus and resources on the development of those industries that are leading in the economy of the 21st century. The aim of these reforms can be defined as the place in the international division of labor, which Ukraine wants to take in a future post-industrial economy. Selection of "industries of the future" is not ambiguous. Without a doubt, it should be high-tech and high-tech industries. In addition, Ukraine should have in these industries and their scientific basis and development projects, highly skilled workforce capable of these new technologies to master. For example, enter the number of such space-rocket and aircraft building industry, accurate and power engineering, development of cybernetic systems and programming, production of semiconductor materials. These are the sectors where Ukraine already has a serious developments. It should be borne in mind that in this race ahead of the curve will involve different countries, and the competition is serious. But in this race, Ukraine has its advantages. We have little to lose. Our industry is in its current form will die regardless of whether we would save her or not. Because of its technical backwardness and lack of competitiveness, it has no chance of survival. In the best case will be half of the current metallurgy and chemistry. And then, provided that the owners will invest the money in their modernization. Here, for example Western Europe has a lot to lose. It has a relatively modern by today's standards of the industry. Because it will still be spending enormous resources at its salvation. Ultimately, this will give a little something. What supposed to die - to die. And spent on saving resources enrolled in irrecoverably lost. The time allotted to us to reform is not great. In the next 7, maximum 10 years, we must form the backbone of the new economy. Then, the window of opportunity will close and we will have to upgrade to spend many times more resources, received much lower results. And given that these resources we do not have and will not have them in the next few decades, we risk hopelessly behind the global development process. The train has left, too late to jump on the bandwagon.
Can the current government to carry out much-needed reform of the country? Judging by the fact that the government still has not managed to articulate and convey to the citizens of their system a vision for reforming the country, it is still far from ready to implement these reforms. It seems that the government sees the reform as a mechanical set of specific reforms. But only in the arithmetic of the reversal of the sum is not changed. In the matter of reforming the error in the choice of the sequence of individual reforms may lead to very disastrous to the general results. I think that should be proactively reforms that the citizens are able to reduce the painful effects of the reform. It is primarily the reform of local self-government and public utilities. They allow citizens to decide their everyday problems. The authorities are afraid to tell people the truth about the real situation in the country, the essence of the reform, the consequences for the country in the event of their failure. She fears that the public does not understand the essence of the reform will be to counter them. This is her blunder. Most people understand the necessity and inevitability of reform. Few people like to drink a bitter medicine, but people are ready to drink when they see that this is the way to recovery. The reforms will affect the interests of many, and therefore it is quite possible some actions against them, it is normal for a democratic society. Remember that mass protests against the reforms were, for example, in Poland. But the political elite did not rush in different directions in order to maintain the popularity and ratings reform is conducted. Speeches and protests in the past, but is now Poland and the Ukraine where, what level of life of the citizens of Poland, and what the citizens of Ukraine. The main opposition to the reforms will not side does not realize the importance of its citizens. The main opponent of the reforms will be our bureaucracy. For reform of the bureaucracy is the threat of losing their power, privileges, their permissiveness and the ability to parasitize on public property. Bureaucracy controls all the levers of power in the country, and will provide strong resistance to any encroachment on its power and authority. Without fundamental reform of the public administration system to overcome this resistance bude not possible. We still have not survived the effective sector management system. The essence of the administrative reform is the shift to functional and project management system. You can take the most common laws and codes, but that will be of not much, if you keep the existing management structure. Only extremely naive people can expect that the customs and tax authorities in their present form will be able to implement the new Customs and Tax Codes, even if they are perfect. They are able to accommodate them only for themselves, to distort their meaning and discredit their contents. In order to create the tax and customs authorities are able to carry out civilized rules and regulations, they will have to build from scratch. With new features and new people. And other ways to deal with the bureaucracy there.
We are seeing a strong and dynamic processes of the world economy. The fact that the agenda raised fundamental issues such as the question of free trade, the global monetary system, the issues of reforming the banking system, in itself speaks about the magnitude of change. We are seeing dramatic changes in the international division of labor. Maintain and enhance the competitiveness of the economy is the main objective of all national economies. Under these conditions, the competitiveness of existing Ukrainian economy is collapsing. Does not fall on a certain inclined line and a curve exponentially. Without fundamental reform, the Ukrainian economy has no chance to survive in the competition.
The question of reform, it is not a question of power or opposition. As the question of the failure of the reforms will not defeat the power, it will be a defeat of Ukraine. In fact the question of the success or failure of the reform is the question of whether Ukraine will continue as an independent sovereign state, or become, at best, in a protectorate, but rather simply-controlled territory. Territory with its formal aboriginal government, which did not detect and solve. And where would be the real center of administration of the territory in the east or in the west, did not significantly change. If current policies do not realize that the issue of reform is not the place for political battles and political intrigue, if not aware of its responsibility to its citizens, if not able to combine their efforts at the site of the country's reform, then "Project Ukraine" will end in failure, to the joy and spiteful critics detractors. To ensure the success of the reforms the country needs more than ever the opposition. Not mindless carping and opposition to authority. Objective criticism and opposition pressure on the government would avoid many of the pitfalls.
We have a chance of success in reforming the country. They are not as great as might be desired. It would take a great effort, hard work. But the other way for us. The road by walking.
Обновлено (24.04.2013 15:37)