Issue debt in Europe, called the European Financial or the European debt crisis is one of the most talked about. Will Europe to solve the debt problem, will be able to pay for them. Will survive, the euro will survive or not, and the entire European Union.
Imagine that a miracle occurred, and 60% or 80% of the European debt disappeared. It does not matter, where are the, well taken and evaporated. That after this change, what will happen? Investors suddenly at once believe in the European economy and begin to invest money in it? What could be the basis for such a change? If the old debts are gone, it does not mean that effectively create new ones. In Europe suddenly increase the rate of accumulation, and there will be a means for economic development? Alas, none of this will happen. State, as before, will spend more than collect taxes. Still grow debts of companies and households. Only the growth of new debt will be even more intense. And after 4-5 years, Europe will return to the same state that we are now seeing.
From all this follows the obvious conclusions. Europe's problem is not in debt as such. The impression that the debt crisis, it is an illusion. Debt is the consequence, not a cause. The reason lies in the production system, which generates these debts. Some financial instruments and financial regulation to solve this problem is not possible. This is not only a European problem. It is inherent in other countries of the world. The crisis in Europe is part of the global systemic crisis of the world economy. The crisis of transition to a new economic system, the new system of production, the new world order. This is a manifestation of the objective laws of development. To deal with them, as such, it's silly and pointless. This aspect of the fundamental problems have been considered earlier in the article "The global economic crisis, the causes and consequences. Quo vadis?" ( crisismir.com/analiticheskie-materialy/ekonomika/13-mirovoj-ekonomicheskij-krizis-prichiny-i-posledstviya-quo-vadis.html). And there is no point in repeating here. Objective laws of development still pave their way. No matter how much was spent resources, the economy of the future that does not need to die. All this does not mean you have to sit down arms. If you act on the pre-emption strategy if to focus resources on the development of perspective in the future industries and production, we can significantly ease the transition to the future. Make it less painful.
Recently, sounded many statements by European politicians of all levels. The theme of the application for judicial processes taking place in Ukraine. However, some of them are trying in one way or another to link the results of the negotiations on association and a free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU and these trials.
Statements of many of them cast doubt on the fact that these policies have democratic convictions. The calls and demands for legislative and executive power to intervene in the work of the judiciary, roughly contrary to European democratic principles that these policies are supposed to protect. It seems that they practice the previously assumed (and probably paid for?) obligations. Only naive people feel that these statements are made to protect Tymoshenko. In fact, they are aimed at weakening the position of Ukraine in the ongoing negotiations. Pragmatic European politicians are using this opportunity given to them. End negotiations and policies will quickly forget about their statements.
Ukraine media are seriously discussing such statements as that trials are a real threat to the signing of the agreement, Ukraine EU. In these discussions prevails politicking, not a real analysis of what is happening. Numerous attempts to inflate psychosis.
If we approach the issue seriously, all the statements of politicians are actually nothing more than a ritual dance, as an attempt to put pressure on Ukraine, which should not be paying much attention. Politics has always been a craft cynical and pragmatic. The situation in Europe is complex. The EU is facing serious economic, and political crisis. In such a situation, the EU simply can not afford to freeze negotiations with Ukraine and close to himself, for an indefinite period, a market with 47 million consumers. The luxury you could not afford in good times, but not now. And for what? Europeans have long been sorted out and have a clear idea of what these are minor politicians, they pretend to protect. And the Association Agreement EU need not less, but even more than Ukraine.
Expect that the EU will sacrifice their own interests, will depart from the line of pragmatism in defense of any Ukrainian politicians, then show your stupidity and incompetence. It is time to recall the famous words of the British minister, said half a century ago, "England has no eternal allies and permanent enemies - it is eternal and permanent interests." Since the policy has not changed. A word of England is easily replaced by the EU.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its July newsletter about forecasts for the world economy. The presentation of the figures are a lot of questions. These figures do not agree well with the essence of the statements of the IMF head Lagarde made it ten days before the publication of the newsletter.
Speaking at an economic symposium in Tokyo, Lagarde said that the IMF lowers global growth forecast for 2012 due to weak investment and the unfavorable situation on the labor market and the manufacturing sector in Europe, the USA, Brazil, India and China. "What I can tell you is the fact that it will be revised downward, and will undoubtedly be lower than forecast, published three months ago", said Lagarde. "Over the past few months, the prospects of the global economy began to cause more serious concern - said Lagarde. - Many indicators of business activity - investment, employment, manufacturing - have deteriorated. This happens not only in Europe and the United States".
If we translate the said Managing Director with diplomatic and economic language to common economic language, the picture does not look very happy. The IMF notes that the situation in the economy over the past three months has worsened. Increased threat of a new wave of the global crisis. These Lagarde economic indicators provide an important advance information. However, they are limited to local character. Far more significant information about the state of global commodity markets. And on the raw wounds there is a decline in prices, reduced demand and oversupply. State of the commodity market is a leading indicator.
However, despite previous statements, the IMF has left global growth forecast for 2012 unchanged. What a miracle happened in the last 10 days before the release of the bulletin, what new information is so radically changed the assessment of the IMF? But there was no news. It is unlikely that information on the record low rate of China's GDP growth can be attributed to such positive news. Hurry vice versa. One can hardly imagine that the IMF is not possible to obtain economic information about the state of the world economy. As it is impossible to say that the IMF lacks the necessary qualified personnel.
Read an article by Paul Krugman in "The New York Times" "Hot Money Blues" The author suggested that the era of free movement of capital may soon be over and that maybe in the future the state will impede the free movement of capital. In connection with this statement Krugman had some considerations which are summarized.
Without the influx of investment economy can not grow. Because the movement of investment capital is not in itself a source of crisis. Crises arise from the influx of speculative capital. The process of reducing the share of investment capital, and the share of speculative capital is growing. As a result, the economy is experiencing a shortage of investment, and the extent of speculation become gigantic. If previously suffered from these processes are weaker emerging economies, now they are suffering from the world's leading economy. The problem is not in the movement of capital, and in the terms and conditions of its movement. They lead to an increase in speculative component. The threat is not the movement of capital and the movement of his speculative component. But this issue has no solution, unless you consider the relationship of capital markets with other elements.
The financial sector and the stock markets are interconnected communicating vessels. The system of stock markets evolved as a mechanism for investment and reallocation of investment in favor of the most successful and profitable sectors and industries. At present, it is not its main function executes, it runs on itself. It caters to venture capital and making investments unattractive. As a result, we observe the processes of the recession and the drop in production in the world economy. Such a system of stock markets is necessary to substitute (or systemically reform the existing one), that she would perform the function for which it was formed. If this is not done, the speculative component will continue to grow and it will collapse on its own, but it will bring down the overall economy.
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28.11.2011 13:08 | 
Автор: Роман Блейфер | 
